Everton ended the summer transfer window with Thierno Barry as their only recognised senior striker. It raised eyebrows, to say the least.
Relying on a young, developing forward as the focal point of a Premier League attack seemed like a bit of a high-wire act for a club that had had their fair share of run-ins with the Premier League plughole in recent seasons.
Understandably then, it might be jarring for Toffees fans to see Barry leading the entire division in big chances missed – but that’s actually a really good sign.
Thierno Barry is a dark horse in the 2026/27 Golden Boot race
On paper, it’s a pretty damning headline metric, all but confirming Barry is a raw centre-forward, not quite at the level of an elite Premier League striker yet.
Beneath the surface of that negative stat, though, is a compelling case for Evertonians to feel optimistic about their frontline.
The gap between Barry and the rest of the league is stark, that much is true. His 10 missed big chances is double that of the trailing pack, with Erling Haaland, Dan Ndoye, Igor Thiago, Gonzalo Garcia, and Bryan Mbeumo all sitting tied on five.
The gulf between elite and developing becomes clear, too. Haaland’s shot conversion rate currently stands at 27.3% – exactly double Barry’s 13.6%. That disparity highlights the dividing line between a world-class finisher in a dominant side and a young striker still finding his feet in the Premier League.
Context is everything, though, and to understand why Barry’s metric is actually quite encouraging, one only needs to look back at the precedent set by Manchester City’s talisman. Last season, Haaland missed 30 big chances in the Premier League – a full 10 clear of the second-placed player in the division.
Haaland’s numbers illustrated the following things about modern centre-forward play. First, even the most lethal finishers miss good opportunities with regularity. Finishing is a volatile skill, subject to myriad factors such as execution, and opposition goalkeeping. Second, and most importantly: you cannot miss a big chance unless you have the movement, anticipation, and physical presence to get into those positions in the first place.
For Everton, that second point is everything. A true nightmare scenario for a team playing with a solitary senior striker isn’t a forward missing chances, it’s a striker who is invisible. Barry is not guilty of that, and being incapable of registering high-quality opportunities is the far greater crime.
Evertonians have backed him with their lungs at the Hill Dickinson Stadium; they’re willing to be patient and hope he comes good. Only the aforementioned Haaland has accumulated more Expected Goals (xG) than Barry in the Premier League season, even if his finishing and goal tallies are doubly as good. Barry is making the runs, pulling defenders out of shape, and putting himself in positions to generate high-xG chances consistently. He’s doing the hard part.
Eventually, regression to the mean will take over, which means Barry should begin finishing his big chances. Doing so at even an average conversion rate will greatly help Everton – who remain unbeaten after six games and have conceded the joint-fewest goals in the division.
The headline stat might look frustrating on the surface, but for Everton, Barry’s high volume of misses is actually the clearest sign that goals are just around the corner.
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