Everyone’s wrong about Bukayo Saka’s decline: statistically, he’s still elite

For the first time in his Arsenal career, Bukayo Saka is being questioned – and certainly not over his ability or his commitment.

This is a player who set an Arsenal record for the most consecutive starts – notching 100 goals and assists in the top flight in his first 200 games for his boyhood club.

No one can criticise him – they’re simply asking if it’s all starting to catch up with him.

Has Bukayo Saka really lost his pace and explosiveness?

Saka was actually the sixth-youngest player to 200 games in the top flight – and excluding the superhuman endurance of James Milner and Gareth Barry, there are cautionary tales in the other three players ahead of the Hale End graduate. Wayne Rooney was essentially finished at the top level for his country after Euro 2016, aged 30 – and that was the age that Cesc Fabregas enjoyed his ‘twilight’ in the Premier League, winning the title in 2016/17. Raheem Sterling’s latter days need no explanation.

The common conception is that Saka is next. If you listen to critics, he’s lost a turn of pace and lost his ability to beat a man.

Take the game against Leeds United on Saturday, in which Saka’s performance was boiled down to two moments. In the first half, in one particular duel against Ao Tanaka, the Japanese held his own – leading to criticism of Saka for not bursting past his opponent and doing something with the ball – while on the stroke of full-time, Saka had a one-on-one with James Trafford, only for Tarik Muharemovic to catch up, seemingly putting him off from slotting it home.

Statistically, it’s a little more interesting. As per data from Gradient Sports, Saka is in the 99th percentile for tackle resistance in Europe. That means two things: firstly, he’s a glaring target for the opposition (obviously). Secondly, he’s better than anyone else in Europe at keeping possession despite that.

Only Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham have a higher tackle resistance score than Saka, meaning that the Arsenal man is top of the Premier League when it comes to protecting the ball, laying it off to someone else and recycling play. That certainly suggests that not only are full-backs getting tight to him, he’s evading them somehow – as he did on every other occasion on Saturday, either to win a foul, clear the ball or recycle it.

And while from 2022/23 season to 2026/27, Saka’s average top speed has dropped by 0.61km/h – he’s actually running more. This season, Saka has made an average of 76.5 sprints per 90 minutes (that’s runs reaching 20-25 km/h): compare that to the 66.7 per 90 in 2022/23, when Arsenal were playing a far higher tempo brand of football – or the 65.8 per 90 he managed at the World Cup during the summer.

Is it possible that his game has just… changed?

Arsenal have changed over time… but so has Saka

Saka looks a bit slower for a few reasons. Arsenal as a whole are a lot slower than they were when he first broke through: if he’s not sprinting into space several times a game… well, that might be because there isn’t much when teams sit deep and Arsenal don’t break with much pace.

And then there are the injury issues. Saka had a serious hamstring tear a couple of years back – last season saw him battle with persistent knocks, with a school of thought forming that, like team-mate Declan Rice over the international break, he may just need a month or so off for his body to fully recover.

Yet Saka himself confirmed at the World Cup that he was fit and ready to go. He didn’t miss the World Cup semi-final through anything other than a selection decision.

And perhaps this is the new normal for a little while. Saka has changed physically: he’s a lot stronger than when he broke through, and instead of needing time on the sidelines to wait until he’s the player he was five years ago, maybe instead he needs time on the pitch to adapt to the player he is today.

Ultimately, perhaps Saka was misprofiled by some fans from the start. While he was always quick, he was never a Madueke-type winger in his youth: his game has always been defined by his decision-making. From making his debut as a left-back, to filling in as a central midfielder in lockdown, he never reached the top level after growing physically, but taking on more responsibility. He never needed to grow a couple of inches taller: he just needed the ball to show what he could do.

That’s why fans shouldn’t worry. Statistically, Saka is doing everything right. His game will adapt over time as his body changes – but whatever his pace and power look like, he has the IQ to still affect games at an elite level.

Data via Gradient Sports